09 November, 2008
So strange sites don’t always behave…
Sure, You Can Get Unlucky ─ But Isn’t It Your Responsibility To Check?
Out here we’re betting the future of the wife and kids on y’all getting this right.
Sunlight has more powerful influence on ocean circulation and climate than North American ice sheets
A study reported in today’s issue of Nature disputes a longstanding picture of how ice sheets influence ocean circulation during glacial periods.
“The distribution of sunlight, rather than the size of North American ice sheets…
“Previously, scientists relied on a study called “Specmap,” performed in 1992, to find out how different parts of the climate system interacted with one another during glacial cycles. Specmap analyzed ocean circulation at only one place in the Atlantic.
“What I found was that the one site that the Specmap study used actually didn’t match most of the other sites in the Atlantic,” said Lisiecki. “They just happened to have a strange site that didn’t behave like most of the other sites. The other sites show that the circulation is not responding to the ice volume, but that it is responding to changes in the distribution of sunlight.”
08 November, 2008
Yesterday I spent some time contemplating the pressure on journalists in science to make an obligatory bow to the controllers of media by inserting into even the most straight forward reports of discovery moving our understanding and knowledge of climate over the centuries forward a note that this (whatever it chances to be) has been disrupted and unbalanced in a negative way by modern man.
This contemplation was triggered when I was reading a fascinating story in ScienceDaily “Ancient China: Lack Of Rainfall Could Have Contributed To Social Upheaval And Fall Of Dynasties”.
It was compelling reading, until I ran full tilt into the obligatory snowstorm:
“That relationship flipped, however, around 1960, a sign that the late 20th century weakening of the monsoon and drying in northwestern China was caused by human activity.”
My initial response was anger, that then morphed into despair. How have we allowed ourselves to be bent, allowed our science to be bent, allowed the minds of even our precious children to be bent to the point where educational fact can carry a pseudo religious/political message of bias which is almost universally accepted uncritically as truth?
Reports become propaganda. Fact is superseded by agenda. Knowledge is distorted to become the evil of thought control.
I wrote about this, and posted it to the “review” stage… then deleted without posting; wondering if I was being extreme… whether it was just my personal fury which should perhaps remain within me.
But it was not just me. This morning, Anthony Watts posted the following in Watts Up With That? “A Test of Climate, Sun, and Culture Relationships from an 1810-Year Chinese Cave Record”.
“The sign of the correlation between the AM and temperature switches around 1960, suggesting that anthropogenic forcing superseded natural forcing as the major driver of AM changes in the late 20th century.”
It is the same story I had been reading, and obviously Anthony is uneasy about this, too, as I suspect, you also will be; so I have written my thoughts again; and this time I will post them.
Please do not allow the implication of this to go unremarked.
07 November, 2008
Feel the Chill (but do not get a fever from the rage the story will engender in you).
BBC SHUNNED ME FOR DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE
“A respected botanist and the author of 35 books, he had presented around 400 programmes over the years and was appreciated by audiences for his boundless enthusiasm.
“Yet for more than 10 years he has been out of the limelight, shunned by bosses at the BBC where he made his name, as well as fellow scientists and environmentalists.
“His crime? Bellamy says he doesn’t believe in man-made global warming.
“Here he reveals why – and the price he has paid for not toeing the orthodox line on climate change.”
Expressyourself has the full story.
05 November, 2008
Have a toggle at this, and feel shock and awe: ICECAP PDF (use keyboard back and forth arrows)
From the story in ICECAP:
If You Don’t Like History, Change It! – Art Horn
“Well it was quite an eye opener! Going back and forth between the images there is a clear cooling [in/of] the temperatures before 1970 and a clear warming of the temperatures after 1970. It is unmistakable and quite remarkable. Figure one is the temperature data from 1880 to 1999. Figure two shows the most recent plot.
“We all know that Dr. James Hansen is one of the worlds most visible global warming alarmists. He is also caretaker of the NASA GISS data. It would appear that he is not happy with the trend of temperature in the United States. It would also appear that he is doing something about it. By adjusting temperatures in the past downward and adjusting more recent temperatures upward we get an amplification (or at least the appearance of one) of the rise in temperature between the late 1970s and the late 1990s. If these adjustments continue we will eventually have a new “Hockey Stick” graph.“
But read the whole story from the ICECAP link
“Hockey Stick” aka “Hydra” (Greek mythology: monster with nine heads; when struck off each head was replaced by two new ones.)
Ah, ha! So that’s how they do it…
MIT SCIENTISTS BAFFLED BY GLOBAL WARMING THEORY, CONTRADICTS SCIENTIFIC DATA
Scientists at the Massachussetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in 10 years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increases in this greenhouse gas. It takes about one full year for gases generated in the highly industrial northern hemisphere to cycle through and reach the southern hemisphere. However, since all worldwide levels rose simultaneously throughout the same year, it is now believed this may be part of a natural cycle in mother nature — and not the direct result of man’s contributions.
“We believe, however, as do many reputable scientists, that the warming and cooling of the Earth is a natural phenomenon dictated by forces beyond our control, from ocean currents to solar activity.
“The latest warming trend, which appears to have ended in 1998, is the result of the end of the Little Ice Age, which extended from roughly the 16th century to the 19th. During that period, Muir Glacier in Alaska filled Glacier Bay. In fact, when the first Russian explorers arrived in Alaska in the 1740s, there was no Glacier Bay — just a wall of ice where the entrance would be.”
Alarmists Still Heated Even As World Cools
04 November, 2008
Up in the mornin’
Out on the job
Work like the devil for my pay
But that lucky old sun got nothin’ to do
But roll around heaven all day.
Time for a rethink I reckon NOAA !! – Warwick Hughes, 30 October, 2008
Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA / NASA
The real world sunspot data remaining quiet month after month are mocking the curved red predictions of NOAA and about to slide underneath. Time for a rethink I reckon NOAA !!
Here is my clearer chart showing the misfit between NOAA / NASA prediction and real-world data.
SUNSPOT 1007: Over the weekend, sunspot 1007 grew into a substantial active region with two planet-sized cores connected by dark magnetic filaments thousands of kilometers long. The ensemble bears a curious resemblence to the pipe of Sherlock Holmes: “It’s filamentary, my dear Watson!” says Alan Friedman who sends this picture from his backyard observatory in Buffalo, New York:)
N.B: Should you be reading this after November 3, use the “archives” datefinder on the top right of spaceweather.com
30 October, 2008
And the coming wind did roar more loud,
And the sails did sigh like sedge ;
And the rain poured down from one black cloud ;
The Moon was at its edge.
The Rime of the Ancient Mariner (Samuel Taylor Coleridge)
Could we re-bury these records noted below for another couple of hundred years to ease the embarrasement of our C02 warriors?
Nah. Let them eat crow now. It will be easier on their children… and ours as the coming winds roar more load…
From other ancient mariners:
“The records also suggest that Europe saw a spell of rapid warming, similar to that experienced today, during the 1730s that must have been caused naturally.
“British archives contain more than 100,000 Royal Navy logbooks from around 1670 to 1850 alone,” Mr Wheeler said. “They are a stunning resource. Global warming is a reality, but our data shows climate science is complex. It is wrong to take particular events and link them to carbon dioxide emissions.”
by Tom Peterkin
“If the AGW theorists are confident in the global climate model predictions of environmental armageddon, then they should not be afraid to continue using the term “global warming” or more accurately AGW.”
Doppler 9000 Weather Blog
“However, I do get skeptical of the motivation of some of the scientists and media outlets when they use “climate change” instead of AGW. After all, the problem, as we are told, is human caused climate change, not “climate change” in general. I guess on the most basic level “climate change” will always force humans and life on this planet to adjust and cope, but that is not what has been in the headlines for nearly 20 years. The drill has been “global warming”= “climate change”=AGW=the end of the world. Call me skeptical, but I think the headlines have shifted dramatically over the last year (to “climate change”) in response to the fact that the earth hasn’t warmed one degree since 1998. In fact, the average global temperature has gone down slightly. I suppose it might start to sound silly saying “global warming” when the globe hasn’t warmed for 10 years.”
29 October, 2008
“We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.”
“In 1995, I published a short paper in the academic journal Science. In that study, I reviewed how borehole temperature data recorded a warming of about one degree Celsius in North America over the last 100 to 150 years. The week the article appeared, I was contacted by a reporter for National Public Radio. He offered to interview me, but only if I would state that the warming was due to human activity. When I refused to do so, he hung up on me.”
Skeptic Professor Deming has Teaching Certification Revoked by University of Oklahoma
Professor Deming is unaware of any other case in the history of the University of Oklahoma where the “gen ed” certification for a course has been revoked. It would appear possible that Professor Deming’s position on global warming was a motivating factor. But in this case, the tragedy is that the people being punished are the students, not the professor.
Full story and links in ICECAP
27 October, 2008
Ozone Hole: A Dummy Run For Power and Glory Mk.(C)02?
“In 1993, Princeton University physicist William Happer was fired from the Department of Energy because he disagreed with Vice President Al Gore’s views on stratospheric ozone depletion.”
26 October, 2008
Fools Rush In…
New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month – cosmic rays at fault
paminator comments on this story:
“There are some big problems with the CFC-ozone causal link claimed by promoters of the Montreal protocol. There was a paper in Nature last year from NASA JPL that reported measured reaction rates for one particular chemical pathway to be much too slow compared with the assumed reaction rate that led to the predictions of ozone destruction rates from A-CFC’s.”
(And writes more. Note the space shuttle loss thought in this comment, 11:51:11)
“Chemists poke holes in ozone theory: Reaction data of crucial chloride compounds called into question.”
“As the world marks 20 years since the introduction of the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer, Nature has learned of experimental data that threaten to shatter established theories of ozone chemistry. If the data are right, scientists will have to rethink their understanding of how ozone holes are formed and how that relates to climate change…”
“Meanwhile, atmosphere researchers have started to think about how to reconcile observations of ozone depletion with the new chemical models. Several thermal reactions, or combinations of reactions, could fill the gap. Sander’s group has started to study possible candidates one by one – but so far without success.”
The 2009 International Conference on Climate Change returns to New York City on March 8th, 2009.
“Distinguished scholars from the U.S. and around the world have addressed these questions seriously and without institutional bias. Their findings suggest the Modern Warming is moderate and partly or even mostly a natural recovery from the Little Ice Age; that the consequences of moderate warming are positive for humanity and wildlife; that predictions of future warming are wildly unreliable; that the costs of trying to “stop global warming” exceed hypothetical benefits by a factor of 10 or more; and more.” – Dee Norrs
And Richard111 comments there:
“The question is why? The fact this conference seems to be the only platform where scientists can express their disagreement with IPCC claims is astounding.
“How does this situation come about? Why can’t it be corrected?”
How, and why, indeed… we, the world’s sheep?
24 October, 2008
Do we feel shame? Or anger? Or both?
Extract from a comment on Watts Up With That? by David Ball:
“...I would like to tell you the tale of how my father has been smeared and marginalized by the media, but it would take an enormous amount of time. David Suzuki has gone to great lengths to make sure that my father is viewed as “a nutbar”. I would like for you to see the relevance of my dad’s work on this issue, and what he has been saying for 30 years. There is no political or monetary motivation behind it. Simply to further the science. It is a sad story that many on this side of the debate can attest to.”
Wikipedia biographical background: (excerpt) Dr. Timothy F. Ball
“Believe it or not, Global Warming is not due to human contribution of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). This in fact is the greatest deception in the history of science. We are wasting time, energy and trillions of dollars while creating unnecessary fear and consternation over an issue with no scientific justification.” – Timothy F. Ball
“This graph shows average global temperature records for the last five years from two of the world’s most respected meteorological institutes, the UK’s Hadley Centre, and the University of Alabama in the US. Both show a clear downward trend, and the graph contrasts that trend explicitly with the rising trend of atmospheric CO2.”
Global Cooling Continues
By Roger Helmer, Straight Talking
Story on ICECAP
23 October, 2008
A powerful and important call to the rational in this age of unreason:
“YOU CHOSE a visit to a wind-farm in early summer 2008 to devote an entire campaign speech to the reassertion of your belief in the apocalyptic vision of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change – a lurid and fanciful account of imagined future events that was always baseless, was briefly exciting among the less thoughtful species of news commentators and politicians, but is now scientifically discredited.
“With every respect, there is no rational basis for your declared intention that your great nation should inflict upon her own working people and upon the starving masses of the Third World the extravagantly-pointless, climatically-irrelevant, strategically-fatal economic wounds that the arrogant advocates of atmospheric alarmism admit they aim to achieve.”
The first two paragraphs from an: “Open letter from The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley to Senator John McCain about Climate Science and Policy.”
American Thinker, 23 October, 2008
Lawsuit against Canada over Kyoto accord dismissed
by Allan Dowd
21 October, 2008
The protective bubble around the sun that helps to shield the Earth from harmful interstellar radiation is shrinking and getting weaker, NASA scientists have warned.
From Watts Up With That?
But Perhaps Not…
Leif Svalgaard adds some balance in comments in Watts Up Wth That? which brings out the caution that we should not be easily stampeded by spooks who may indeed have ulterior motives for shouting “Fire!” in this crowded theatre we call Earth:
”This is the typical [misleading] NASA announcement. They are under pressure to show that their data and findings are extraordinary and spectacular breakthroughs, and so overhype everything. Here is a graph of the solar wind flow pressure [normalized to Earth’s distance] since spacecraft measurements began. The Ulysses data refer to the two red circles. As should be obvious, the last polar passes are indeed lower than the previous passes [at solar minimum], but this is just part of the normal waxing and waning of the solar wind. There has been several times in the past where the flow pressure was the same or even lower, so no big deal, and no alarms should be sounded. It is like discovering that it is colder in winter than in summer.“
Sobering. Are we really seen as just puppets to be danced at the whim of every passing scoundrel?
Seems we need to learn to cut more than the apron strings to reach wisdom…